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☆ Ukraine can keep on fighting Russia — but the 'victory' it wants might be out of reach
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Ukrainian servicemen practice combat drills involving a BMP-1 in Donbas, Ukraine as Russia-Ukraine war continues on March 19, 2024. But, with future aid uncertain, analysts question what "victory" Ukraine could realistically achieve against Russia — a country that has put its industries on a war footing and is able to mobilize hundreds of thousands more men to war. While additional aid allows Ukraine to keep on fighting Russian forces in the short stretch, a "victory" in the near-term is an unlikely prospect. What's more, what "victory" looks like for Ukraine, or its allies, could be a source of friction. This is particularly the case in eastern Ukraine, where it has enjoyed support from pro-Russian separatists for over a decade.

Persons: Teneo, Vladimir Putin, Natalia Kolesnikova, Tursa, Frankness, Oleksandr Musiyenko, Putin Organizations: Anadolu, Getty, Russia —, Afp, Centre for Military, Legal, U.S, CNBC Locations: Donbas, Ukraine, Russia, Kyiv, U.S, Central, Eastern Europe, Ukrainian, Crimea, Red, Moscow, Russian, Sevastopol

☆ Russia claimed the West, Kyiv ordered the Moscow terror attack. Now it has the problem of proving it
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-27 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Russian President Vladimir Putin at an expanded Prosecutor General's Office meeting on March 26, 2024, in Moscow. An investigation into the attack is ongoing, but the latest, outlandish accusations give Moscow a problem: It now has to find the evidence to back up its unsubstantiated claims. What's particularly awkward for the Kremlin is that the Islamic State militant group has already claimed responsibility for the attack. Ukraine denies any involvement in the attack, saying it was "absolutely predictable" that Moscow would look to blame it. The White House said Ukraine had "no involvement whatsoever" in the attack and that any claim to the contrary was "Kremlin propaganda."

Persons: Vladimir Putin, It's, Andrius, Putin, David Cameron, concertgoers, Alexander Bortnikov, Nikolai Patrushev, Sergei Karpukhin, Nikolai Patrushev —, —, Patrushev, Maria Zakharova, Dmitry Peskov, Peskov, Moscow, Margarita Simonyan, Putin's, Alexander Lukashenko, Rachabalizoda, Barotovich, Muhammadsobir, Shamsidin Fariduni, Tatyana Makeyevaolga Maltseva, Max Hess Organizations: General's, Getty, Ukraine, Crocus City Hall, Islamic State, West, Kremlin, Russia's Federal Security Service, Russian Security, AFP, Security, Islamic, RIA Novosti, Russian Foreign, U.S, Kremlin's, CNBC Wednesday, Institute for, Afp, Analysts, Foreign Policy Research Institute, CNBC, CIA Locations: Moscow, Russia, Ukraine, Crocus, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Ukrainian, Europe, Russian, U.S, Kyiv, Belarusian, Belarus, Basmanny, Soviet Union

☆ Putin expected to use deadly Moscow attack to Russia's advantage, whoever's to blame
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-25 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

U.S. officials and defense experts agreed that it's highly likely that IS was responsible for the attack. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Saturday that "what happened yesterday in Moscow is obviously just Putin and the other scum trying to blame it on someone else." Moscow openly rebuffed and ignored a warning from the U.S. earlier in March that "extremists" had "imminent plants" to attack large gatherings in Moscow. Law enforcement officers stand guard near the Crocus City Hall concert venue following a reported shooting incident, near Moscow, Russia. Just days before the attack, Putin instructed Russia's security services to focus their efforts on supporting Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, Mikhail Metzel, Vladimir Putin's, Olga Maltseva, hasn't, Ukraine —, Putin, Ali Cura, Dmitry Medvedev, Medvedev, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Maksim Blinov, Maximilian Hess, Hess, Putin's, Tatyana Makeyeva Organizations: Sputnik, Afp, Getty, Hall, Islamic State, Ukraine, West, Crocus City Hall, Anadolu, Russia's Security, NBC News, Foreign Policy Research Institute, CNBC, Islamic Locations: Russian, Moscow, Russia, Crocus, Ukraine, Kyiv, Europe, Basmanny, U.S, Chechen, Islamic State, Syria, Afghanistan

☆ War, reforms and a possible successor? Here's what we could see from 6 more years of Putin
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-19 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

Analysts share their views on what we can expect now that Putin has strengthened his grip on power, with the Ukraine war, domestic economic reforms and a possible government reshuffle key factors to watch. Having cleared more of a procedural hurdle than a real test of his policies and popularity in the election, Putin will have more freedom to advance contentious reforms at home, analysts note. Russian President Vladimir Putin delivering an annual address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, at Moscow's Gostiny Dvor, in Moscow on Feb. 29, 2024. MOSCOW, RUSSIA - JANUARY 8: (RUSSIA OUT) A woman eats hot corn while walking along the Red Square near the Kremlin, as air temperatures dropped to -18 degrees Celcius, January,8 2024, in Moscow, Russia. However, with the dynamics of the war now shifting in Russia's favor, Putin might feel more confident with the reshuffle.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, Natalia Kolesnikova, Vladimir Putin's, Putin, embolden Putin, Liam Peach, Jose Colon, Anton Siluanov, Tursa, Adeline Van Houtte, Donald Trump, Dmitry Peskov, Peach, he's, Sergei Shoigu, Sergei Lavrov, Mikhail Mishustin, Dmitry Medvedev, Gavriil Organizations: Afp, Getty, Kremlin, Commission, Analysts, U.S, Capital Economics, Anadolu, Anadolu Agency, Economist Intelligence Unit, Federal Assembly, Russian Federation, New, Putin, Security Council, Sputnik Locations: Crimea, Red, Moscow, Russia, Russian, Central, Ukraine, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Eastern Europe, Europe, U.S, Russia's, MOSCOW, RUSSIA

☆ Russians vote in an election that Putin will win, but the Kremlin is looking for a landslide victory
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-15 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Mikhail Svetlov/Getty ImagesThere are no surprises over who will win Russia's presidential election this coming weekend with incumbent, Vladimir Putin, set to win a fifth term in office, keeping him in power until at least 2030. The heavily stage-managed vote taking place from Friday to Sunday is not expected to throw up any nasty surprises for the Kremlin which told CNBC months ago that it was confident Putin would win the vote comfortably. That's particularly the case in a country where Russian opposition figures are not represented on the ballot paper or in mainstream politics, with most activists having fled the country. "According to official data, Putin received 77.5% of valid votes in the 2018 presidential election that saw a turnout of 67.5%. Russian opposition activists, most in self-imposed exile in order to evade arrest, imprisonment or attack, have also condemned the election.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, Mikhail Svetlov, Putin, That's, Alexei Navalny, there's, Vladislav Davankov, Leonid Slutsky, Nikolay Kharitonov, Russia's, Yekaterina Duntsova, Boris Nadezhdin, Andrei Kolesnikov, —, Diego Herrera Carcedo, Andreas Tursa, Russian Federation's, Yulia Navalnaya, Dmitrii, we're Organizations: Kremlin, CNBC, New People, Liberal Democratic Party, Communist Party, Russia's, Commission, Levada, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Anadolu Agency, Getty, Putin, Teneo, Russian Democratic Society, Festival Locations: Kremlin, Ukraine, Russia, Klishchiivka, Donetsk Oblast, Europe, Kyiv, Crimea, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Donetsk, Luhansk, Russian, London, Sirius, Sochi, Stavropolsky Krai, Krasnodar Krai

☆ West closely watching Putin's next move after breakaway region asks Moscow to 'protect' it from Moldova
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-29 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Russian President Vladimir Putin during a meeting with his confidants for the 2024 election at Gostiny Dvor in Moscow, Russia, on Jan. 31, 2024. Maxim Shemetov | ReutersSpeculation is mounting that Russian President Vladimir Putin will use his annual address to Russian lawmakers Thursday to announce that Russian troops will be sent to "protect" the pro-Russian, breakaway region of Transnistria in Moldova. Officials in the separatist region appealed to Russia on Wednesday for "protection" against Moldova's pro-Western government. "We keep a close eye and reiterate that the Transnistrian region is aligned with the goal of peace and security of Moldova. A map of Moldova, including the breakaway region of Transnistria.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, Maxim Shemetov, —, Putin, Moldova's, Daniel Voda, Matthew Miller, Tursa, Russia's, Ivana Stradner, Daniel Mihailescu Organizations: Gostiny Dvor, Reuters, Moldova's, Russia's Foreign, RIA Novosti, Analysts, Federal, U.S . State Department, EU, Getty Russia, United Nations, Defense, Democracies, CNBC, Kremlin, Russian Federation, Institute for, Afp, Getty Locations: Moscow, Russia, Transnistria, Moldova, Soviet Union, Europe, Pridnestrovie, Moldavian Republic, Transnistrian, Ukraine, Donetsk, Luhansk, Russian, South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Georgia, Washington, U.S, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Odesa, Chisinau

☆ 'They're running out of time': Ukraine's counteroffensive is gaining urgency as winter approaches
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

"Despite inflicting significant losses on Russian armed forces, Ukraine's four-and-a-half-month-old counteroffensive has not achieved major territorial gains nor managed to slice through Russia's 'land bridge' to Crimea," he added. "The hope is that they're far enough through the Russian defensive lines now ... to make some rapid progress. Russian forces had months to prepare layers of defenses including extensive networks of trenches; anti-tank obstacles such as ditches and "dragon's teeth"; and minefields. Russian forces are also receiving support from artillery, attack helicopters and other aircraft, again impeding Ukraine's forces. Minefields, in particular, have disrupted Ukraine's offensive momentum and rate of advance, according to analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Persons: Roman Pilipey, Tursa, Yevhen, they're, Michael Clarke, John Moore, they'll, Ukraine hasn't, Clarke, Orikhiv, They'll, that's, Seth Jones, Riley McCabe, Alexander Palmer, Ukraine's, Joe Biden, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Kevin Lamarque Organizations: AFP, Getty, Russian, L119, Armed Forces, Anadolu Agency, Royal United Services Institute, CNBC, Ukraine's Defense Ministry, Ukraine, Planet Labs PBC, Handout, Reuters, Center for Strategic, International Studies, CSIS, Ukrainian, 35th Marine Brigade, Hamas Locations: Kostyantynivka, Donetsk, East, Ukraine, Russian, Russia, Luhansk, Crimean, Kherson, Central, Eastern Europe, Crimea, Marinka, Krasnohorivka, British, Bakhmut, Dnipro, Robotyne, Zaporizhzhia, Tokmak, Melitopol, Sevastopol, Moscow, Kyiv, Ukrainian, U.S, Israel

☆ Ukraine ally Poland is moving to the political center. And that's bad news for Russia's Putin
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

It has taken in more than a million refugees from its close ally Ukraine since the start of the war, with many more millions passing through it. Its relations with Ukraine have soured in recent months, partly because of a dispute over the impact of Ukrainian grain imports on local farmers. Tian also expects the result to "reposition Poland as a staunch supporter of Ukraine" and for Tusk to push for EU accession for Ukraine. "The big thing to bear in mind when looking at Poland and Ukraine is they have an overarching strategic common interest [challenging Russian aggression], and this supersedes everything. So it will be difficult to restore relations to how they were in the first 18 months of the war, regardless of what Poland does."

Persons: Donald Tusk, Donald Tusk —, —, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, Tusk, Tian, Aleks Szczerbiak, Szczerbiak Organizations: Civic, Getty, EU, Justice, CNBC, NATO, World Trade Organization, Law, Nurphoto, European, Economist Intelligence Unit, University of Sussex, Confederation, Soviet, Russia Locations: Warsaw, Moscow, Ukraine, Europe, Russia, China, India, Poland, Warsaw's, Krakow, Central Europe, Hungary, Slovakia, Berlin

☆ Russia can gain from Middle East turmoil — but it could backfire if the war spirals out of control
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Putin likely wanted to show that Moscow is still important in the Middle East by visiting Iran, said John Drennan of the U.S. Institute of Peace. It could present an opportunity for them but also could present a very, very disastrous outcome for their influence in the Middle East too if the conflict spirals out of control," Ramani said. Analysts also believe Russia will use the war in Israel and Gaza to sow disinformation about Ukraine and discord among its allies. As such, the war between Israel and Hamas also provides Russia with an opportunity to flex its diplomatic muscles in the Middle East, after something of a hiatus from the global stage. So this shows that Russia is not isolated in the Middle East, and Russia still maintains the same array of diplomatic partnerships that it had before the war," he noted.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, Ebrahim Raisi, Putin, John Drennan, Sergei Savostyanov, Samuel Ramani, Ramani, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Joe Biden, Jim Watson, Volodymy Zelenskyy, Sergei Karpukhin, Benjamin Netanyahu, Maxim Shemetov, They've, they've, Bashar al, Assad Organizations: Getty, Palestinian, Hamas, U.S . Institute of Peace, AFP, Royal United Services Institute, CNBC, Kremlin, Ukraine, Analysts, White, U.S, Congress, NATO, Afp, International Energy Agency, Russia, Israeli, Iraqi Locations: Sochi, Russia, Israel, Gaza, Moscow, Iran, Ukraine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, U.S, Europe, Washington ,, Brussels, Russian, OPEC, Turkey, Egypt, Tehran

☆ A second war could easily erupt in Europe — while everyone's distracted by Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +11 min

Violence erupted in northern Kosovo in September, and Belgrade responded with a military build-up on its border with its neighbor. Given the current political and security context, analysts say an outbreak of violence in northern Kosovo "should raise alarm bells." Open hostilityLong-simmering animosity between Serbia and Kosovo has broken into open hostility in northern Kosovo in recent months. Northern Kosovo, which borders Serbia, has an ethnic Serb majority whereas the country as a whole is around 93% ethnic Albanian. Mojsilovic stated that number of troops on the Kosovo border had been reduced to 4,500 from 8,350.

Persons: Milan Radoicic, Majda Ruge, Stringer, Milos Vucevic, Staff Milan Mojsilovic, Mojsilovic, Aleksandar Vučić, Vučić, Ian Bremmer, Bremmer, Ruge, Aleksandar Vucic, Krusha, Armend Nimani, Slobodan Milošević, Serbian, Albin Kurti, Andrius, Tursa, Serbia's Slobodan Milosevic Organizations: Kosovo Police, Kosovo Serb, Milan, Anadolu Agency, Getty, European Council, Foreign Relations, Albanian, Kosovo, Afp, NATO, Serbian, Staff, Financial Times, EU, Eurasia Group, Yugoslavia, Yugoslav, Yugoslav Ministry of Defense, Federal, Nato, Kosovo Albanians Locations: Banjska, Jarinje, Serbia, Zvecan, Kosovo, Ukraine, Europe, Belgrade, destabilising Kosovo, Northern Kosovo, Serbian, Serbs, Yugoslavia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Nagorno, Karabakh, Russia, Mitrovica, North Macedonia, Albania, Montenegro, Balkans, Kosovo Albanian, Krusha, Madhe, Albanian, Yugoslav, Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, Central, Eastern Europe, Stagovo

☆ With Putin and Kim Jong Un set to meet, the West fears what Russia and North Korea are planning
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-12 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, and North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un shake hands during their meeting in Vladivostok, Russia, Thursday, April 25, 2019. Alexander Zemlianichenko | Pool | APThe leaders of North Korea and Russia are scheduled to meet this week, with deepening military, economic and geopolitical cooperation on the official agenda. There are also fears about what Moscow might offer the economically isolated and heavily sanctioned North Korea in return. A fire assault drill by North Korean rocket artillery units at an undisclosed location in North Korea in March 2023 in this photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). For their part, Russia and North Korea have both denied claims of alleged arms dealing.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong, Alexander Zemlianichenko, Kim Yong Un, Putin, Pat Ryder, Edward Howell, Kim Jong Un, Kim Ju, Howell, scot, Dmitry Peskov, Kim, Peskov, It's, —, Pyongyang's, Jung Yeon, Victor Cha, Andrius Tursa, Sergei Shoigu's, John Kirby, Wagner, Vladimir Putin grimaces Organizations: White, North, Pentagon, Ukraine, North Korean, Korean Central News Agency, Reuters, UN, North Korea —, Oxford University, CNBC, North Korea's Central News Agency, Kcna, Nuclear Weapons, UN Security Council, Kremlin, Getty, Eastern Economic, U.S, U.S . National Security, Zvezda Shipbuilding, Bolshoi Kamen Locations: Vladivostok, Russia, North Korea, Russian, Korea, Pyongyang, Ukraine, Moscow, Korean, Pakistan, Syria, Libya, North Korea's, London, Washington, Japan, South Korea, U.S, Bolshoi

☆ Ukraine's counteroffensive has been underwhelming so far — but it's low key for a reason
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Anatolii Stepanov | Afp | Getty ImagesWhen Ukraine's counteroffensive started last week there was no fanfare or official announcement, but that wasn't entirely unexpected. "We are trying to find the weakest places in the Russian defense line. Nonetheless, Ukraine's deputy defense minister conceded Wednesday that the fighting was "extremely fierce" and that the counteroffensive had only had "partial success" so far. CNBC contacted Ukraine's defense ministry for further comment and is awaiting a response. "We will see the main punches of Ukrainian forces in the nearest future.

Persons: Anatolii Stepanov, Nick Reynolds, Andrius, Oleksandr Musiyenko, Musiyenko, Matthew Miller, RUSI's Reynolds, they've, it's Organizations: Afp, Getty, Kyiv, CNBC, Defense, Centre for Military, Legal Studies, Velyka Novosilka, Ukrainian, Anadolu Agency, NATO, . State Locations: Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, Russian, Kharkiv, Kherson, London, Russia, Central, Eastern Europe, Kyiv, Velyka, Donetsk, Bakhmut, Crimea, Donbas, Moscow

☆ Ukraine's dam disaster is 'unlikely' to derail its plans for a counteroffensive against Russia
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Sam Meredith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Ukraine accused Russian forces of blowing up the dam, while the Kremlin denied the attack and said Kyiv intentionally sabotaged the dam to distract attention from its counteroffensive. The dam breach comes amid months of buildup to Ukraine's counteroffensive, a phase of the war that many see as potentially pivotal in Kyiv's pursuit of victory. A spokesperson for the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on Friday, however, dismissed reports that a counteroffensive had begun, according to Reuters. Ukraine's government has repeatedly said there will be no public announcement of the start of the counteroffensive. Andrius Tursa, central and Eastern Europe advisor at Teneo, a political risk consultancy, said the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam may alter Ukraine's offensive plans — but was "unlikely to derail" them.

Persons: Andrius, Tursa Organizations: Kremlin, CNBC, NBC, General Staff, Ukrainian Armed Forces, Reuters Locations: Donetsk region, Russian, Ukraine, Kyiv, Eastern Europe, Nova, Crimea

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